Bacon, Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, Explosives

My worldview is that humans are, essentially, rational or emotional (or a mix) self-directing agents. I frequently walk over to Joe‘s office to whine about the latest evidence that this is simply not true. A while ago, I listened to Guts, specifically Gut Feelings, which talks about the evidence that the reason you do things is to make the bacteria in your GI tract emit chemicals that make you happy; this is the genesis of my crude statement about yogurt-seeking bacteria. In the podcast, they specifically say there isn’t any evidence that eating yogurt makes you happy, but at the same time I’ve always liked yogurt and I’ll just hum and ignore contrary evidence.

One of the topics we talk about frequently is the difference between experts and neophytes; yesterday’s post lets some gas out of so-called experts, but in other areas of life, you can clearly tell experts from non-experts (or not). We’ve argued over putting automobile racing in the non-sport column and baseball in the sport column, and if the bias to do so comes from the fact that we’ve all driven way over 10,000 hours and auto racing is just that, faster, with tighter corners. Even with over 10,000 hours of driving, how many experts are there? One percent? A tenth of a percent? I feel fairly good about myself when I pull off this recovery and that recovery, but then I remind myself that an expert wouldn’t have put themselves in that situation. Dumbass.

“Colors” brings up an interesting question, though: can you see something you don’t have a name for? I’ve certainly looked at enough colors in my life to think, well of course, I would see a color I didn’t know and know I didn’t have a name for it, but based on the evidence, that’s clearly bullshit. If you don’t have the words for something, can you reason about it? There is plenty of evidence that you don’t have to think to win, and part of the 10,000 hour rule is that you’re carving new instincts, so at some level experts are reasoning less because they’ve integrated a set of skills.

There is no real conclusion here but one: I think we’re fooling ourselves when we say we’re going to think about something, but if it keeps you warm at night, well, a few million years of evolution are on your side, so don’t worry about it too much.